Monthly Archives: Feb 2018

It’s Simon Bridges vs Jacinda Ardern

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Barely had Simon Bridges been announced as the new leader of the National Party and also Leader of the Opposition than he was attacking Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on regional development. But who is Simon Joseph Bridges?

Mr Bridges entered Parliament in the 2008 intake along with Ms Ardern. She was from Morrinsville where her father was a police officer. He was a Te Atatu lad who went to Rutherford High and was Head Boy. One became an urbanite, living in Mt Albert whilst the other became M.P. for Tauranga, after the controversial Bob Clarkson left at the end of the 2005-2008 term of Parliament.

Mr Bridges, by his own admission is a social conservative, who initially opposed same sex marriage, though admits now he would probably change his vote having seen how it works. Prior to entering Parliament he was a Crown Prosecutor who mainly worked on jury trials. He has three children and is married to Natalie Bridges.

During his time in the National-led Government of Prime Minister John Key, Mr Bridges held the Energy and Resources portfolio. Whilst holding this portfolio he controversially sponsored a Bill of Parliament that effectively criminalized peaceful protest on the high seas, which numerous N.G.O.’s including Amnesty International and Greenpeace, along with high profile lawyers such as Sir Geoffrey Palmer, who was formerly Prime Minister in 1989. Mr Bridges also held the Transport portfolio and was known for his support of National’s Roads of National Significance policy, which had a heavy focus on highways.

When former Prime Minister John Key resigned in 2016 Mr Bridges stood as one of the contenders to replace him. With Mr English now gone, Mr Bridges appointment as Leader of National and Leader of the Opposition signal the end of the John Key-Bill English dream team that saw National win three consecutive elections with levels of support never seen prior in an M.M.P. environment.

The challenges Mr Bridges face are significant. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has yet to put a major foot wrong and her popularity is climbing along with support for Labour, which is enjoying its highest poll ratings since the 2002 election where Labour won 52 seats and National slumped to an all time low of just 27. Labour has not yet had time to do much and the voting public acknowledge this. Because of that, Mr Bridges could find himself struggling to gain traction in the first term.

So, I welcome Mr Bridges as Leader of the Opposition/Leader of the National Party. It could however be a lonely few years trying to contain one of New Zealand’s most progressive Prime Ministers in decades.

 

National’s decision day

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Former Prime Minister Bill English leaves Parliament today. Before he does, the National Party will decide on his successor to be leader of the Party and Leader of the Opposition.

Who will that successor be? A quick look at the five candidates:

AMY ADAMS
Mrs Adams, M.P. for Selwyn was a lawyer before she stood for National in the deep blue Canterbury electorate. Seen by many as competent and ambitious, Mrs Adams may lack the support of the conservative wing of National.

SIMON BRIDGES
Mr Bridges, M.P. for Tauranga, was Minister for Transport, Minister for Energy and Resources at various times under the previous Government. Whilst ambitious and showing potential as a front row Member of Parliament, Mr Bridges tendency to get frustrated in debates may turn people against him.

JUDITH “CRUSHER” COLLINS
Ms Collins earned the “Crusher” nickname from promoting the crushing of so-called boy racer vehicles confiscated by Police. A darling of the conservative wing of National, she has long had a solid interest in law and order, which came art a price when she was forced to resign over fallout from the Oravida scandal.

MARK MITCHELL
A man who once shot at insurgents in Iraq as a security contractor, Mr Mitchell has seen his share of pressure. However the public distrust over things related to Iraq will plague him especially since he will not say much about it. His time as Minister for Defence was sold but not spectacular.

STEVEN JOYCE
A strategy man who was the “power behind the throne” of former Prime Ministers Bill English and John Key, Mr Joyce was also the Treasurer for Mr English. His steady hand is a potential double edged sword. On one hand it has a proven record. On the other it was the hand that led to Mr English not getting the covted fourth term for National.

New Zealand immigration needs to do due diligence on tradies

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Over a six month period, an Immigration New Zealand/Police operation stopped 190 potential tradies whose immigration visas were found to be suspect. Some were stopped at the border and sent home before they could enter New Zealand. Some were caught on work sites and deported. Many more are most likely still here in some capacity.

The tradies commonly told the officials that “a man in a black Audi” would come around and pay them every Thursday. He would pay them $20 or $40/hr. Operation Spectrum as it was known also uncovered a weakness in New Zealand border security, that enables people who have left or been deported to return under new identities.

One of these non-compliant people is Adam Gan Bin Abdullah, from Malaysia. He was one of two who went on to get permanent residency. Last week he went to Manukau District Court to plead guilty to immigration fraud. Somehow though, Mr Abdullah found the gall to intone that he thought he could get away with it.

This is not an acceptable attitude for anyone hiring in New Zealand to have. One could go on about “when in Rome” and subsequent expectations, but the simple fact of the matter is New Zealand is supposed to have standards to promote and uphold and undermining them with such an attitude is clearly not going to achieve that task.

When an employer pays out in cash, it is time to pay attention. How do we know if he has paid A.C.C., deducted income tax and so forth from the money? If he has how do we know that it is accurate? And where are the paper records that he would be expected to keep when approached by Inland Revenue Department, that compliant New Zealand employers would keep?

When New Zealand Immigration goes over the visa applications for people such as the tradespeople that Mr Abdullah hired, whose role is it to check that they are actually qualified and not cowboys? Whose role is it to check that their visa applicants are true and correct?

Immigration New Zealand has improved its detection systems, with improved biometric data handling processes. It says that with these improvements New Zealand has a better chance of picking up frauds like Mr Abdullah at the border before they are let in.

Whilst that is good to hear, any person not born in New Zealand who knowingly violates New Zealand immigration law once should have a minimum non-entry period, with a warning that next time it is permanent.

New Zealand First hangs in the balance: Is rural development its saviour?

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For six years, New Zealand First was one of the biggest foes that the Trans Pacific Partnership had. It, along with the Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand, represented a bloc in Parliament who wanted New Zealand to have nothing to do with what some called a corporate take over. It marched on the streets alongside the Greens and Labour M.P.’s. It assisted with petitions and introduced legislation to Parliament in an attempt to derail the T.P.P.A.

But in January this year, the Government, with New Zealand First standing proudly alongside, announced that they would support the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement.

The response was swift and it could also be lethal. New Zealand First plunged in support from getting 9 Members of Parliament post election to being so low in the polls that it would not be back in Parliament if an election were held today.

There are a number of potential causes for the decline of the centrist/populist party that had in its ranks a growing number of younger people including myself.

The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement u-turn that New Zealand First has done might be the final straw for a lot of people who see it as the ultimate betrayal of everything the party stands for. Up to the election it had campaigned steadfastly against the agreement in any form and got my vote for that reason. And whilst Fletcher Tabuteau’s Fighting Foreign Corporate Control Bill might still be potentially revived, is Mr Tabuteau still interested?

Internal strife in the party, whose Board seems to be sluggish and averse to communication, has not helped. In 2015, having managed to gain 3 new Members of Parliament New Zealand First was optimistic about its future. Members of the Party and Members of Parliament were saying they could double the number of M.P.’s at the 2017 election. None seemed to have made any allowance for a Labour resurgence. Nor did anyone reckon with “Jacindamania”, the phenomenon that swept New Zealand in the weeks following Jacinda Ardern being appointed Leader of the Labour Party/Leader of the Opposition and then, following the election and New Zealand First’s decision to support Labour, Prime Minister.

A third problem could be Shane Jones. The former Labour Member of Parliament left in 2014 after questions were raised about him approving the application of a Chinese businessman for New Zealand citizenship. In June 2017 he was confirmed at no. 8 on the New Zealand First Party list for the election, over and above a number of hard working loyal party members and candidates deserving of promotion.

But…

Could the party be saved from itself by the rural development fund? New Zealand First has long been a proponent of supporting the regions, which have been ignored in large part by the National and Labour parties, and are traditionally conservative. Part of New Zealand First policy at the election was a rural development fund that would support the rural communities that have faced long term decline from the closure of meat works, the centralisation of services such as the post office, banking, hospital and medical centres as well as schools and police stations.

Mr Jones is Regional Development Minister, and on 23 February 2018 he and Ms Ardern unveiled the N.Z.$3 billion rural development fund. This will fund a range of regional developments and the initial funding allows for investment in railways and totara forestry in Northland.

Given its struggles internally and externally, New Zealand First will be hoping that this enables the party to claw back some of the respect lost. This happened it announced it would support the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement’s successor, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership (C.P.T.P.P.).

Funding the Government’s spending priorities

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When Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister, she entered office with a long list if promises. They looked fantastic and still do today. But one question exists:

HOW IS NEW ZEALAND PAYING FOR THIS?

I am concerned that despite Ms Ardern being to say that the Labour party was able to prove it had it’s plans costed, Labour have under estimated the money they will need to spend. I think that the party pushed itself into an unnecessary tight spot by not raising taxes.

There are ways around some of the associated issues through user pay charges for example when it comes to National Parks – Department of Conservation for example could require a $10 fee for anyone over 16 but under 65 entering a National Park. It would be used to fund maintenance, repairs and upgrades on top of base funding from the Government. Another source could come from requiring tourists to have medical insurance whilst in New Zealand. Too often tourists receive medical care in New Zealand and walk out the door without making arrangements to pay the outstanding bill, which means that the unfortunate taxpayer coughs up the money.

Some income sources could be controversial, but need to be explored nonetheless. One of these would be legalising cannabis. The effect of this, aside from saving potentially millions from being wasted on trying to criminalize a problem that will probably exist until civilisation is finished, would also enable cannabis based businesses to flourish, and thereby a taxable stram of business. The American states where it is legal to sell cannabis have reported significant increases in their tax take as a result of being able sell cannabis products.

Labour is most likely going to have raise taxes. Currently those brackets that existed since 2010 and are not tight enough are still intact. They are:

  • $1-14,000 = 10.5%
  • $14,000-$48,000 = 17.5%
  • $48,000-$70,000 = 21.0%
  • $70,000+  = 33%

My assumption is an income tax rise is on the cards. Big or small. Long-term or short-term, it is coming.