Monthly Archives: Oct 2017

Big foreign policy issues to confront Labour

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One issue for me will be seeing how far the Government is willing to bend to the Chinese authorities when it comes to the prickly issue of human rights and the Chinese Government. As an Amnesty International member with the local Christchurch chapter, we have a Prisoner of Conscience who we have been working to get out of a Chinese prison. Her crime was to support womens rights and support peaceful human rights activism in Hong Kong. What will Ms Ardern get Mr Peters to do when the next delegation of Chinese Government officials touches down. Are they going to allow Green Party M.P.’s to protest near the officials, or will the nervous security detail be allowed to protest?

New Minister of Defence, Ron Mark is well known for his criticism of expensive Defence Force purchases, and will be wanting to cast an eye over the finer detail of future expenditure, before taking it to Cabinet for approval. Unlike the Treasurer Grant Robertson, Mr Mark will be aware that the $15-20 billion expenditure plan for the next 15-20 years is actually not loaded with significant new expenditure, with much of it allocated to upgrading existing capacities rather than bringing in new capacities.

As someone with his own thoughts on Defence issues, I will be interested to see what happens. A major concern for me is how or whether the alleged war crimes in Afghanistan will be subject to the appropriate scrutiny. Or will, as a result of being in coalition and having to do deals with parties they do not see eye to eye with, the Greens let the issue slide.

Perhaps the biggest issues at the moment are what Labour will do about the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement. New Zealand First and the Greens want to kill it outright. New Zealand First tried twice to pass legislation through Parliament to stop it. Labour, however, has to present a moderate face and has a tricky choice to make. Does it appease its supporter base and that of its Government coalition partners and kill the deal, at the risk of jeopardizing a separate deal with Japan at the same time, or does it allow some sort of watered down version of a very unpopular deal to go through?

The T.P.P.A. is seen by the right as some sort of trade holy grail. But there is something inherently suspicious about such a huge deal. 6,000 pages of details – is anyone actually ever going to be fully conversant in it and does it really take that much paper to outline the terms of something that is supposed to reduce trade barriers? At least I thought that is what “free trade agreement” is supposed to do.

Perhaps if there is anywhere New Zealand can help on the world stage it is showing support for the Iran deal, North Korean sanctions and United Nations reform.The former two are tied together loosely as the Iran deal is a sign that “rogue nations” can be brought to heel. And if the Trump Administration is blocked from walking away from the Iran deal, it will show North Korea that the “cowboy” administration is being stood up to by its own people. If Iran stays the path, it will show that negotiated solutions still have their use.

It looks like the Labour Government and its allies are going to hit the ground running. Ms Ardern might be an internationalist, but she is one of the Helen Clark mould and has a sense of pragmatism that will soon find itself tested.

Reality of Opposition yet to hit National

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These are unfamiliar times for National and Labour. The latter will be on a high for bit longer yet from the events of 19 October 2017, where New Zealand First leader Winston Peters gave Labour leader Jacinda Ardern the right to form a Government. But what about the National Party getting used to the Opposition benches?

For a while National will be enthusiastic, possibly looking for opportunities to get an early start in attacking the new Government. For awhile there will still be a smile on the faces of National Party M.P.’s whose brains are not yet in tune with the fact that they will not be the ones passing laws, setting the agenda or the Budget for a change.

But at some point the reality will hit home. It will not just be in terms of having no Ministerial portfolio’s to look after. It will not be just in terms of the fact that many of them will have taken hefty pay cuts from their Ministerial roles. It will not just be in terms of having fewer, or at the least, drastically changed options for overseas trips acting on behalf of New Zealand.

There will be only so much that the right can do to attack the new Government during its honeymoon period without looking bitter and twisted. During this time, the public will be prepared to give Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her new Cabinet some space and patience whilst they learn the ropes, as few of them will have been Ministers before – New Zealand First Leader and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and a few others exempt.

Despite this, National appear to have already started attacking. Mr English and National’s finance spokesperson Steven Joyce have both started questioning the proposed fuel tax for Auckland to fund its transport needs. The attacks are classic National – attacking the fact that the taxes will cost Aucklanders more money. However at this time they come off to me at least as desperate and bitter, since National had 9 years to make Auckland’s transport more sustainable, and all that has been achieved is a worsening of congestion on many routes, an under funding of public transport and growing public disgruntlement.

The fact that this is already happening, whilst the new Government’s honeymoon period is barely starting, show that National are deeply hurting at losing office. This should perhaps not be a surprise. They had every reason other than the public mood for change, to think that a fourth term was theirs for the taking. They are the largest party in Parliament and their 56 Members of Parliament present a formidable attack machine, though it is yet to be retooled as an Opposition attack machine and not a Government sanctioned one. National have several things that they need to do in the next few months, aside from accept that – barring a spectacular Government collapse – they are destined for three years on the Opposition benches:

  1. Decide on Bill English’s future – will he really want to stick around once the reality of Opposition kicks in?
  2. Decide the style of Opposition that will be employed
  3. Reorganize their ranks – the line up that worked so well in Government might not be the best line up for the Opposition
  4. Look at their policy platform and how it can be tailored to acknowledge the fact that Government policies on health, social welfare, housing and education among others were failing

These are not insubstantial jobs. They will take time and patience. How bloodlessly will the leadership change that is probably coming, going to be? National will be keen to avoid the blood spillage resulting from the coups Messrs David Shearer, David Cunliffe and Andrew Little as leaders of the Labour Party. They will want theirs to look like the peaceful transition from Mr Little to Ms Ardern in August this year – bloodless and quick.

But for now, the most unfamiliar task of all awaits. Getting used to being parked on the Opposition benches, most likely until at least 2020 and possibly beyond. That will take some getting used to.

Change in Australian Government good for New Zealand

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The (disgusting) comic strip that is the Australian Government of Malcolm Turnbull took another turn today. With the High Court announcement that Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, Senators Larissa Waters, Malcolm Roberts, Scott Ludlam and Fiona Nash are dual citizens, the seats of five elected Australian representatives – all from the Liberal and National parties – became vacant. The vacancies ensure that the Government of Mr Turnbull is now in grave danger of falling, having lost its majority.

Let me be clear now. The Australian Government has not collapsed. It is however holding an extremely tenuous grasp on power. With multiple Senators having been found ineligible to be in an elected office by the High Court, the immediate well being of the Liberal-National coalition is in grave jeopardy. Just a single seat change would deprive them of a majority. This would have one of two potential outcomes. The first option would be to hold a confidence vote, in which Labor tries to topple the Government. The second would be to see if the Court can force the resignations of the ineligible Senators.

I have no sympathy for this extremely dysfunctional, completely inept, arrogant and compassion less Government. Held hostage by fear mongers and money grubbing thieves, the Government of Malcolm Turnbull has put on show not a display of efficiency or legislative brilliance, but one of supreme ineptitude. When the ruling was released today, Mr Turnbull had no answers ready for the Australian people. He had no apology for its conduct and only took one question before scampering out of sight.

As a New Zealander, I see no gains for this country from Australia continuing with the shambles that exists. Far better would be to dissolve Parliament and call a snap election that clears up what the people of Australia think – or don’t think – about the Government from the get go. The Turnbull Government has done much to undermine its small Pacific Island neighbours. It has failed to acknowledge, much to Australia’s growing environmental and economic cost, the threat of climate change.

During the time of this Government New Zealanders have wound up in the monstrosities called the Nauru and Manus Island Detention Centres. New Zealanders are finding themselves being shut out of Australia by the failure to address a lack of common route to Australian citizenship for expats.

The truly incredible thing is that no vetting was done to determine all of this before they even stood for Parliament in the first place. If they had, this Government could have been quite different.

In particular I would like to make mention of Anthony (Tony) Abbott, M.P. for Warringah. When a Government permits an immortal kamikaze M.P. to go randomly crashing into whatever he wishes, getting up and immediately doing it again what does that tell you about him? Mr Abbott is an attack machine.  He single handedly destroyed former Prime Minister Julia Gillard, through a combination of misogynistic attacks and exploiting her feud with her predecessor Kevin Rudd. Mr Abbott then became Prime Minister of Australia in the 2013 election. But before his first term was even over, the Liberal Party of Australia had lost its lead in the polls. An attack dog Mr Abbott might have been, he was no leader. Mr Abbott had been deposed by Malcolm Turnbull because he was in danger of leading the Liberal Party to its first ever first-term defeat. When Mr Abbott, a staunch Catholic conservative took power, he had four priorities:

  • Deny climate change
  • Lower taxes
  • Increase defence spending, especially on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter project
  • Turn the refugee boats around and make sure they never come back

Australia began to slide backwards. He began to chip away at the support building for same sex marriage. His Treasurer Scott Morrison unveiled a package of tax cuts aimed at the wealthy and proposed cuts to tertiary education, health and the environment to fund it the cuts.

Current Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull ousted Mr Abbott in a desperate attempt to stop the Labor Party gaining a lethal grip on the proverbial throat of the government. The Liberal Party of Australia won the 2016 General Election, but only just, losing all but one of their majority.

Minister for Immigration Peter Dutton declared war on asylum seekers – they take your jobs, cost taxes and commit crimes he said. Mr Dutton went on to say refugees are a menace and they don’t know how to look after their children. They won’t settle in Australian society and mistreat their women, said Mr Dutton. Quite forgetting of course that Australia is not so hot on this (but that’s another story). The extent to which Mr Dutton has gone to war has caught the attention of media such as the Guardian, caused condemnation at the United Nations and made himself and his Government a target of Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch activism. The war continues.

Another issue on which an active war is being fought – though hopefully not for much longer – is the campaign for same sex marriage. Australia has an opportunity to join the ranks of New Zealand and ther countries who have legalized same sex marriage. Whilst many are enthusiastic, there has unfortunately been a clique who have waged active war trying to stop it. They do not want same sex marriage and to many its all about Adam and Eve, as opposed to Anna and Eve or Adam and Steve, but when asked for facts to back up their claims, no one can – or will.

But it does not need to.

Just like the idiot who started it. And the illegitimate, contemptuous, vacuous waste of space that calls itself the Government of Australia. Australia and New Zealand, like the rest of the world would be better off.

 

What I hope for from this Government

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Right from the get-go Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has impressed. From her maiden speech to Parliament to her speech attacking the “massive, massive failure” of Work and Income New Zealand when a service centre computer was found to have substantial security flaws; from her taking over as Leader of the Labour Party to this day, she has won peoples hearts. She has shown to the centre left that there is still a future to be proud of.

To date I have been very impressed with the promises made. They are many, extensive and have the ambition I thought was lacking in the previous Government. It is not to say I do not have concerns. I do, and they split into a range of areas. The sheer scope of what is being undertaken is massive for a first term Government. I admit that Ms Ardern could be outlining her overall work plan. If this is the case then it sounds like a great programme.

Policy announcements so far largely address my major concerns. I see movement pending on transport, housing, social welfare and income. All of which is good. Teething issues around the T.P.P.A. clauses remain. These need to be addressed.

Except that I will be honest and admit I am a bit worried by whether Ms Ardern has bitten off more than she can reasonably process. If Ms Ardern and her Government cannot show the necessary realism, it could be a detracting factor in terms of getting a second term. The National Party was not expecting to be on the outer when they thought they had done the hard grafts stitching New Zealand First leader Winston Peters up. But they were.

Given her programme it would be unrealistic to expect all of the following, but if a couple of the key ones were tackled I would be very grateful. They are:

KEY POLICIES

  • An inquiry into the courts to find out why the sentencing regime is not
  • A referendum on a formal constitution – with a working group established to explore outcomes based on result
  • An investigation into the pros and cons of a nation wide biofuel programme based on the waste stream
  • End N.C.E.A. – all subjects need partial internal assessment
  • Review how D.H.B.’s funded

SECONDARY

  • A formal framework on the permissible applications of drones, aviation hazards and licensing Increase Defence Force funding to 2% of G.D.P. – support U.N. peace ops; international law enforcement and take lead in South Pacific security
  • Truth in sentencing – 25 years means just that
  • Recognize Palestine if unconditional disarmament of HAMAS ; Israel’s 1967 border is legit
  • Embed the Resource Management Act
  • Introduce rules forbidding New Zealand companies from having ties with companies that have a hand in making chemical, biological or nuclear weapons
  • Increasing research and development to 2% G.D.P. with the potential for research in other fields

 

Time for E.Q.C. inquiry

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During the campaign, Prime Minister-designate Jacinda Ardern and Labour made a slew of promises regarding the Christchurch earthquake recovery and the role of the lead agencies involved. Whilst the Canterbury Earthquake Authority has since been dismantled, the Earthquake Commission, the other major Government agency involved – overwhelmed and somewhat leaderless since 2010 – has fought a losing battle coping with the complexity of the civilian rebuild.

The incoming Minister for Christchurch Earthquake Recovery, Megan Woods, has stated her desire to hold a Royal Commission of Inquiry into the failure of the Earthquake Commission. The Commission which has oversight for the repairs to properties damaged in the 2010-11 earthquake sequence told media that she “absolutely wants one to be held.

This is long overdue. It should not have taken a change of Government in Wellington to bring about something that many have been demanding for several years. Despite having largely finished the settling of civilian claims, the Earthquake Commission has since been found significantly wanting in signing off on repair work done. Many of the claimants have come back to their properties after work was supposed to have been completed to find defective repairs or in some cases work that was meant to be done, not being done at all.

When former Minister for Earthquake Recovery, Gerry Brownlee was appointed to the role in September 2010, following the initial magnitude 7.1 earthquake, the Earthquake Commission was swamped by claims from the quake which totalled N.Z.$4 billion. Only a fraction of those had been processed when the 22 February 2011 earthquake hit. The claims blew out to over 200,000 and totalled N.Z.$35 billion, rising to N.Z.$40 billion with the damaging 13 June 2011 aftershocks.

Although Mr Brownlee made significant effort to get the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority and E.Q.C. working together, there were common problems – a lack of communication, unwanted Ministerial intervention, a lack of transparency in the organizations and accusations of nepotism. Unfortunately a degree of truth existed to all of these with the Chief Executives of both E.Q.C. and C.E.R.A. coming in for damning attention. To his credit, the C.E. of the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority, Roger Sutton fell on his sword after realizing the damage his behaviour had done. Mr Sutton had gained respect in September 2010 for his outstanding leadership of Orion, the lines company responsible for the electricity power line network and distribution in Christchurch.

The Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority wound up on 18 April 2016, five years after forming. It had several successes such as overseeing the Christchurch recovery blueprint, but it also had negative events such as the premature demolition of several buildings with heritage classifications on them undermine the more positive work. Its failure to co-ordinate properly with E.Q.C. served to undermine the effective and efficient early stage recovery.Whether or not any Royal Commission of Inquiry seeks to uncover who did what is another story altogether. Let us hope it does, for the ability to find out how E.Q.C.’s involvement in Christchurch got to where it is, depends on this.