Monthly Archives: Mar 2016

Until next time, this is the New Zealand Flag

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This is not an endorsement of the current New Zealand flag. This is simply accepting that for the time being the New Zealand people have decided that the Union Jack + 4 Stars of the Southern Cross shall be the New Zealand flag.

The time for changing the flag is coming. This was not it for  several reasons, not least key voting constituencies were not having a bar of a new flag, but also because there seemed to be something quite artificial about the manner in which it was done.

We might not know the full rationale that led Prime Minister John Key to think that there would be a good sound case for changing the flag. However, we do know that in the years and months proceeding it, there was a determined and persistently strong chorus of resistance that the Prime Minister ended up not being able to ignore. It came from all corners of society, from fellow National party members, to war vets and even to those barely old enough to vote, but old enough none the less to realize the importance attached to the flag.

Although the Prime Minister may have gotten it wrong this, as many think he did, Mr Key may have set off something larger in terms of constitutional change whose full impact might not be known for several years. This something – whatever it maybe – may end up being the true legacy of an otherwise unspectacular Prime Minister.

For me it was the links to Britannia and the acknowledgement that the wartime generation fought and died for this flag. It was an acknowledgement that under this flag, although the Silver Fern is imprinted on New Zealand graves overseas, 30,000 men and women in two world wars and a host of smaller conflicts went to war under it and did not come back under it. I cannot ignore that.

But eventually that generation will die out. And sometime between now and then, the ultimate symbol of Britannia that New Zealanders fought and died for, the Queen of England will die too. As a figurehead of the monarchy who grew in stature and saw off some of the most challenging post war issues in Britain, the Queen as much as the Union Jack in the corner of the flag was – and still is – a link back to a place that some call the Motherland or the Fatherland.

When that connection is severed – it might be tomorrow or another decade and a half – I will acknowledge the departure of the link between New Zealand and the British Empire, for the Union Jack will then be redundant. It will be a part of yesteryear, just like the old naval ensign. That time is coming, but this was not it.

So, enjoy this flag whilst it lasts because when change eventually comes, even the traditionalists are going to have a hard time stopping the tide.

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Elected representatives not deserving of threats – Keep it classy New Zealand

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Minister attacked by dildo thrower; Minister receives death threats; M.P.’s office attacked. Every so often we hear of a politician being attacked verbally or occasionally physically by an angry individual or one with a past. The media cover it and people comment on social media. Whilst most of the commentary is harmless, what about the times when it is not? What about the times when physical or verbal intimidation, threats to ones body or property are made? What about the times when it becomes necessary for the Minister or Member of Parliament in question to call the Police?

It is true that a Minister of the Crown might well be the deserving target of ire.  However there is a distinct difference between showing one’s ire with a person and being outright threatening, which is what Ministers of the Crown are increasingly experiencing. I have at times been very frustrated for example with Minister of Social Development Paula Bennett over her treatment of beneficiaries, of whose number she was once one. I have on occasion e-mailed her office to complain about the performance of Department of Work and Income New Zealand. I have always kept my tone civil on the understanding that people should not realistically be expected to respond to abusive correspondence, but also because as a decent person with standards, I am above that.

Where as in some respects there was a bit of humour in train when Minister Steven Joyce was attacked with a dildo thrown by a Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement protester, there is no humour in death threats. There is no humour in throwing muck, eggs or anything else likely to dirty the body or clothes of an official. In my book that is extremely poor form and the person who throws the offensive content should pay the dry cleaner costs and so forth. There are several instances of this happening. One of those incidents was when an aggrieved father threw muck at Minister Earthquake Recovery Gerry Brownlee at the Christchurch Earthquake Memorial Service on 22 February 2016. Mr Brownlee is by no means the first though. In 2004 the then Leader of the Opposition Dr Don Brash was struck by mud thrown by a Maori sovereignty protester at the Treaty of Waitangi commemorations on Waitangi Day of that year.

And then there are the death and harm threats to individual Ministers and Members of Parliament. Again, because her major portfolio involves making social policy decisions that may adversely affect people, Ms Bennett has been the target of death threats. Understandably in cases like these she has every right to be nervous.

As a society New Zealand is exceptionally lucky to have the access that we do to our Members of Parliament, who despite perceptions among New Zealanders are among the most readily accessible in the world. As a society we need to respect the fact that in the course of their time as Ministers, Members of Parliament our politicians are going to make controversial calls. Sometimes they will make a mistake. Sometimes they will for whatever reason insist that no mistake was made. We have the right to be angry and we will be, but there is never any justification for the lower forms of behaviour that I have described here. If people cannot politely or constructively vent their frustraion with Ministers or Members of Parliament on social media, then I wonder if they are fit to be using social media at all.

The case for biofuel in New Zealand

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As the value of coal waxes and wanes, and the nuclear power industry struggles to get away from the shadow of Fukushima, there are many arguments raging about where to go in terms of searching for future energy sources. With climate change and growing awareness of environmental impacts caused by fossil fuels, nuclear power and awareness that certain renewable sources have severe limitations, biofuel has become a substantial player in the global and local energy market. Whilst all sources have their advantages and their limitations, there is a case for the development of biofuel that needs to be recognized.

In New Zealand biofuel remains a relatively unknown and untried source of energy. It is also one with perhaps the greatest misconceptions about it.

Because there seems to be little media coverage of biofuel development, those misconceptions are hindering its development as an energy source.  Among them is the idea that it has to come from ethanol using source material such as corn. Although corn is a source material for ethanol, there are a range of sources that can be tapped into in the waste stream, which include – but are not limited to – animal fat and waste cooking oil; tallow and algae in waste water.

As one of the four major players in the petroleum retail sector, Z formed when Royal Dutch Shell withdrew from the New Zealand market and took over their service stations. Unlike the other large petroleum companies Z has followed a philosophy of being run by New Zealanders for New Zealanders. As part of that approach Z announced it would develop a biofuel facility to develop fuel product for New Zealand vehicles. As none of the other large oil companies in New Zealand have announced their own biofuel programmes, this sets Z apart.

The Automobile Association has also recognized biofuel as being a potentially useful fuel. It is true that a 10% ethanol-petrol blend permits a car to do about 97% of what an equivalent car with a full tank of standard petrol in kilometres per litre. However, the ethanol-petrol blend enables a cleaner and potentially more efficient performance. A locally produced biofuel may also have economic advantages in that it does not have to be imported from overseas may not need to be refined at Marsden Point, which could lead to lower costs at the pump.

But what about biofuel as a source of electricity generation?

This is where the case for biofuel becomes  somewhat murky, not so much because it is impotent as an energy source, but because no serious investigation into its feasibility appears to have been undertaken. Nor does Government energy policy seem to make much of its potential – indeed none of the major parties on either side of the House of Representatives appear to have a policy specifically aimed at promoting the research and development of biofuel.

However bioenergy made up 17% of New Zealand’s renewable energy production in 2014 and 7% of overall energy production in that year. Overseas research that was being done in the United Kingdom in 2012 suggested that microbial matter may be able to be used as fuel cell material. The United States Department of Energy has handed out $18 million in funding for various strands of biofuel research to be conducted.

Although New Zealand has the commendable target of becoming 100% renewable reliant, there seems to be a reluctance by either of the major political parties to make a seriously heavy investment in research into this potentially most valuable of energy sources. Nor does it seem terribly interested in the potential environmental – and subsequent economic – gains that can be had from developing waste stream sources. This needs to change.

Lessons from the Franz Josef floods

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It was regrettable, but completely inevitable. The floods that damaged the West Coast town of Franz Josef were the work of a combination of factors at work. As the clean up continues and the West Coast Regional Council, Westland District Council, the locals, the businesses and the tourists there count the cost of the flooding on Thursday, the debate about the future of the town has reignited.

But to understand the debate and the lessons that will emerge from the thick layer of sediment laid down, we need to look at the underlying geomorphology of the area. It is important to understand how the climatology, the hydrology and the geomorphology work together to create one of New Zealand’s most dynamic river systems. And the planning decisions that lead to properties being sited in high risk areas.

Franz Josef is town nestled against the Southern Alps. This mountain range has very high rates of uplift at nearly 30mm/year and equal rapid erosion, which means a steady supply of sediment is trapped in the upper reaches of the river catchments heading on the range. Because of its location in the roaring forties belt of westerly winds, the Southern Alps is a magnet for substantial orographic rain coming off the Tasman Sea, with some parts receiving up to 14,000mm per annum. Whilst much falls as snow in the winter, during the warmer months during heavy rainfall events 200mm or more in a day is not uncommon.

Waiho and Callery River Confluence March 2005. Callery is off to the left.

Franz Josef is sited on the north side of the Waiho River, a short but steep river that has its source underneath the Franz Josef Glacier. The Waiho River also has a significant tributary called the Callery River which has its confluence immediately upstream from the State Highway 6 road bridge. The Waiho River and the Callery River have quite different hydrological systems. The former is largely hidden under the Franz Josef Glacier and the associated ice pack, which slows the progress of rainfall into the river itself. The Callery River however is nearly all hard rock, with little absorption capacity meaning rainfall ends straight up in the river.

In the past two decades, the Waiho River has threatened the stop banks and the town several times, washing out the northern approaches at least once. Another time under prolonged heavy rain the roof of the glacial tunnel carrying the Waiho River caved in, forming an internal dam of ice that burst violently with chunks of glacier ice found several kilometres downstream on top of the stop banks.

Waiho River Stopbank March 2005

Prior to the flooding  on Thursday, several commercial properties including a hotel were nestled against the southern stop bank.  This stop bank was built across a part of the river bed that has been historically quite active. This area was marked in 2002 by Civil Defence as being at very high risk of a landslide dam burst flood event in either the Waiho or the Callery River. The stop bank on active riverbed has had the effect of making the river pile up large amounts of sediment. In order to protect the premises from a river whose bed is steadily rising and State Highway 6 have necessitated the construction of ever bigger stop banks, costing millions and is ultimately something that cannot be sustained.

The flooding on Thursday however was widespread, right across the riverbed and also broke out on the north side, inundating properties there as well.

But there is a bigger problem in Franz Josef Glacier which may in time supercede all of the other factors. It sits on the Alpine Fault, which is coming to the end of its average repose period and is likely to generate a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake in the next 50-100 years. In 2013, recognizing that the fault poses a substantial threat to the town, Westland District Council released Plan Change 7 to their District Plan, which called for restrictions on the businesses that could sit on the probable fault rupture zone. Due to no clear scarp being visible in the town there is a buffer zone in the plan change. As the rupture is likely to involve up to 8 metres horizontal and perhaps 2 metres of vertical movement, there are suggestions that Franz Josef township should be moved from its present location altogether. The plan change itself does not necessarily suggest moving the town, though discussion has been had about the idea.

Not surprisingly there has been resistance to the proposals. Some people feel that it will kill their businesses and others think the District Council has its priorities wrong. However long time residents know that the river bed is very active and that the Waiho often flows across all parts of it. Whether they admit it or not, time is not on their side as the stop banks cannot get much bigger and the river continues to pile up sediment. Eventually the portion housing the commercial premises and State Highway 6 on the south side will become river bed again as well.

In conclusion, several lessons can be drawn:

  1. The south side premises are not safe from flooding
  2. The stop bank will fail again and does not justify the expenditure on it
  3. State Highway 6 where it passes the river may have to be relocated
  4. Given the high rate of sediment movement down the river and the high annual rainfall, another such event is a certainty

 

Learning from Brussels

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As Brussels cleans up the mess from the bombings a few days ago, the world once again is looking at what lessons can be taken from the attacks. What went wrong in terms of security? What went wrong in terms of intelligence and intelligent police co-operation? And as the lessons are drawn, hopefully people will be looking at past incidents to see if these were avoidable attacks or whether or not the militants really did catch authorities by surprise.

The nature of the war that Daesh is pursuing against the West is not a type of war that can be dealt with by the methods that the American presidential candidates are proposing. Senator Ted Cruz wants to carpet bomb Daesh into oblivion. Other candidates such as Donald Trump have suggested equally aggressive measures. Rhetoric only one might say, but given their light weight experience dealing with foreign policy and national security, disturbing nonetheless. The rhetoric might be music to the ears of American hawks, but it is totally impracticable in execution.

The type of war that needs to be waged against Daesh, should be as much done by intelligence and regular authorities as by military units. Daesh present themselves effectively as a militant group, that thinks it is a country, but is not. Rather than invading countries that are suspected of harbouring Daesh, work to cripple their lines of supply, communication, their funding, their supporters. Take measures that involve armaments, finance, logistics and so forth to the United Nations and have the General Assembly and the Security Council agree to adopt them.

I would have no problems if the United Nations adopted a resolution banning members from supporting or harbouring Islamic State militants or resources. I think few nations would vote against it and most would comply with it’s restrictions.

However, all nations that are attacked by Daesh should not ever clamp down on their citizens liberties. That is precisely what Daesh wants Governments to do. If Governments do that, they are handing Daesh victory on a gold plate with all the trimmings. As fast as possible after a nation is attacked, reopen public places. Yes there should be heavy security. Yes there might be disruptions in terms of services running on time, but not ever should there be no service unless the exact time and location of an attack is known.

In the long term though, Europe might have accept that the days of Schengen free travel zone are over. Individual nations should have always maintained their border checks – yes it takes time, but it was a pipe dream if people thought free travel across a whole continent would not have consequences.